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7/16/08 Russia Deploys New Weapon: Energy |
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By Peter Forman
Russia has been the world's second largest producer of oil, at 3.5 billion barrels per year, (compared to Saudi Arabia's 3.9 billion barrels per year), and has recently pulled even.
It is also the world's largest producer of natural gas.
And it has taken a control position on European energy supplies. (Wall St. Journal, June 16, 2008, Russia Outflanks EU's Pipeline Plan.) In the past few months, Russia has been blatant about using energy as a tool of foreign and military policy and the West is only now waking up to the risks.
This past Thursday, it cut back oil supplies to Czechoslovakia as punishment for signing a missile and radar accord with the United States. Though Russia claims the oil pipeline dry-up was "not political," other countries on the same pipeline were unaffected.
This was also considered a warning to Poland, which relies on the same Russian pipeline and is now wavering on a similar accord. Lithuania remains a possible replacement host for the bases in the accord if Poland drops out as it is less at risk (at this point) because Russia cut off their energy supplies two years ago for different political reasons.
This past winter, Russia cut back oil deliveries to Germany and Poland because of a dispute with Belarus. France and Italy were cut back as well. At about the same time, Russia cut off gas supplies to Ukraine. While this was supposedly for economic reasons, it occurred after the voters elected a pro-Western government. Europe was rattled.
Since Putin's rise to power, Russia seized Yukos Oil; imprisoned the largest Yukos shareholder, Khodorkovsky; and nationalized large portions of the country's energy wealth. Last week they essentially took control of the energy joint venture with BP. And then Gazprom offered to buy all of Libya's gas. Yesterday, Russia and Iran signed an energy cooperation agreement. Europe is now concerned. The EU relies on Russia for almost half of its gas and 30% of its oil, making Europe alarmingly vulnerable.
Russia has found a successful way to extend its influence — with the new weapon of choice—energy.
Many countries elect former military leaders as their political leaders. No surprise that Russia's new President Medvedev was, until he took office, Chairman of Gazprom.
The only way to defeat a Commander-In-Chief whose power is based on petroleum is to move beyond oil.
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