By Peter Forman
Published: September 18, 2008
New York—A narrow waterway familiar mostly to the geo-politically savvy carries over 20% of the world's oil and Iran claims it can shut it down in a matter of hours.[i] [ii]
America's and the West's dependence on oil limits its diplomatic and military options in dealing with hostile foreign regimes, such as Iran. One of the most vulnerable geographic locations in the world of oil is the Strait of Hormuz. Just 112 miles long and 6 miles wide at its narrowest shipping lane, it is the only waterway leading out of the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile, roughly 17 million barrels of oil are transported through it daily, constituting at least 20% of oil traded worldwide.[iii] Iran's coast runs more than 700 miles along the shore of both the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, which is the outlet to the Arabian Sea.
The Iranians are well aware of what they believe to be their trump card in any conflict. Just this week, Iran's top military advisor, General Safavi, announced that its elite Revolutionary Guards will now protect Iran's interests over the Strait of Hormuz, instead of its regular Iranian navy, declaring, "No warship can pass through the waterway without being in our range... Our armed forces, possessed with defensive weapons including missiles, air, sea and torpedoes, are able to control the strait of Hormuz."[iv] The U.S. reacted to similar earlier threats when Vice Admiral Kevin Cosgriff declared at the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama, Bahrain: "No one will close the Strait of Hormuz. They are not going to close it because they will not be allowed to."[v] Iran possesses a stockpile of mines that could be used to disrupt the flow of transportation and provoke the U.S. to engage in extended military conflict.[vi] A disruption to the flow of at least 20% of the world's oil could cause a spike in the price of oil, possibly well in the $200 to $300/barrel range, and would have disastrous consequences for the American economy.
It is considered likely that Iran would respond in this fashion if there were an attack on its nuclear facilities. Furthermore, if it were losing a conventional war with its neighbors it might close the Strait as either a punitive measure or a distraction. American military analysts concur that even if America launched a "full assault" on Iran, there is a significant probability that Iran could still manage to use its surviving military weapons to severely disrupt the transportation in the strait.[vii]
It is our assessment that owners of the vessels will not risk those vessels for the sale of a load of oil.
The American Fifth Fleet was joined by the U.S. Coast Guard in the Persian Gulf in November 2002 as an extension of Operation Iraqi Freedom. The Coast Guard's presence was made permanent in 2004 and it patrols the area to "maintain the security of our oil transportation."[viii]
As long as we are so thoroughly dependent on oil, our geo-political hands will be tied.
To protect our interests, to maintain our national security, and to avoid economic blackmail we need to move beyond oil.
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